Tropical discussion

A weak disturbance off the northern Florida coast moves inland and weakens
today ahead of dissipating on Sunday. Satellite and radar imagery continues
to show weak and minimal convection associated with this system and there
is no further development expected. Another disturbance is centered over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico which is and will continue to track toward
the northwest. Satellite shows a large swath of showers and thunderstorms
in the western Gulf of Mexico. A slight chance to become a named storm
before moving inland Sunday night but no impact to the race. There are no
organized tropical waves in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic.

Saturday: High pressure remains in place between Bermuda the Azores with a
ridge axis stretched from the Carolinas to the Central Atlantic. Above that
a weak frontal zone is stretched west to east from the Canadian Maritimes
to the Gulf of Maine. Between these systems favorable southwest winds
around mid teens are present north of the Gulf Stream to near forty north.
Winds become lighter but still mainly in the teens south of the Gulf Stream
and more southeast closer to Bermuda closer to the ridge axis of the high
pressure. Satellite and radar imagery shows a few clouds over the fleet
with no showers or thunderstorms developing today.

Sunday: High pressure will still be over and east of Bermuda but is now
forecast to start slowly shifting eastward as the next cold front advances
east of the Great Lakes into the eastern and northeastern sections of the
United States. Gradient winds between these systems increase out of the
southwest to south southwest into the 20s near and north to northwest of
the Gulf Stream with the strongest speeds between thirty eight and forty
one north. To the southwest wind speeds get lighter closer to the high
pressure, still near the teens south of thirty five north. There is only a
very small chance for isolated showers to develop in the afternoon.

Monday: High pressure will continue shifting to the east into the central
Atlantic, while the next front moves to off the United States east coast.
In between this high to the east and the cold front located to the
northwest, there will continue to be moderate southwest to south southwest
winds. Winds will trend left into south, southwest, which will become a
more upwind regime for the boats nearing Bermuda. Wind speeds will be
mainly in the teens. For any boats still located closer to the Gulf Stream,
there will be a stronger southwest wind with speeds into the twenties and
maybe higher near any squalls, especially later in the day and nighttime.

Tuesday: High pressure remains located in the central Atlantic, mainly in
between Azores and Bermuda, while cold front weakens and moves to be
located southeast of the Gulf Stream. Ahead of this cold front, winds will
be more right into the southwest, increasing to the fifteen to the twenty
knots range, possibly a little higher. Wind direction will be more right
into southward, which will help give better angle for boats heading to the
Finish line. Ahead of the cold front, there is a chance for showers near
Bermuda, while heavier showers and squalls are possible close to the cold
front. As the cold front moves closer to Bermuda, there will be greater
chance for showers and squalls around during Tuesday night

Wednesday: Ahead of the weaker cold front moving southeast, there will be
lighter southwest winds. Wind speeds mainly in the teens, possible near
twenty knots at times, but there is still chance for heavier showers and
squalls thru much of the day

Best regards Evan Gys
Kind regards,
Coop

Joe Cooper
(M) 401 965 6006
Fleet Communications Chair
Newport Bermuda Race 2024